The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is currently in an El Niño state, has strengthened and current predictions indicate that it will continue strengthening towards a very strong El Niño state within the next couple of months and last at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season. The typical signs that El Niño will affect South Africa are starting to materialise over the Pacific Ocean and it is expected that South Africa will experience the typical impacts of dryer and warmer conditions during this coming summer. Predictions indicate that during spring favourable rainfall conditions over the eastern coastal areas as well as the eastern interior could still be expected. However, moving towards early summer, significant areas are expected to receive below-normal rainfall, especially the central interior and the far northeast. Even though there are indications that the eastern parts of South Africa can expect above-normal rainfall during early summer, caution is advised for the potential change in the forecast due to the developing El Niño. Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for most parts of South Africa during the spring and early summer seasons. The SAWS will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.
For more information: SAWS Seasonal Climate Sept 2026 – Jan 2027