The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral state, however, it has rapidly cooled in the last month. Predictions indicate that we are moving towards at least a weak La Niña event during the coming summer season. As the period of uncertainty for ENSO during winter and early spring draws to an end the predictions become more accurate. There are still some predictions that maintain a neutral state, However, a La Niña State is more likely and gaining confidence as we near the summer seasons. The usual effect of La Niña on South Africa is for an increased likelihood to receive above-normal rainfall over the northeastern parts of the country during summer. Most of the areas that receive significant rainfall in the coming seasons of late spring and summer is situated in the North-East of the country. These areas are expected to receive in general above-normal rainfall during the forecast period up until mid-summer. There are however indications that parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo may receive below-normal rainfall during this period. Minimum and maximum temperatures are largely expected to be above-normal for the most parts during the late spring and summer seasons, with a notable exception of maximum temperatures over the southwestern coastal areas to be below-normal. The SAWS will continue to monitor the weather and climate conditions and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming season.
For more information: SAWS Seasonal Climate Watch Oct 2025 – Feb 2026